The Hormuz closure has caused severe disruption in global energy markets, according to the World Bank, which warned that the impact is already reflected in higher oil prices and revised economic forecasts.
In its latest report, the World Bank said the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant volatility in energy supplies, pushing up crude prices and increasing inflationary pressures worldwide.
Oil Prices Surge to 94 Dollars Per Barrel
The World Bank projected that the average price of Brent crude will reach 94 dollars per barrel this year, marking a substantial increase compared with January forecasts.
The report noted that oil prices have risen between 36% and 50% compared to earlier projections, driven largely by supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East.
In a worst-case scenario, the Bank said oil prices could climb to 115 dollars per barrel if energy supply disruptions persist for a prolonged period.
Global Inflation Expected to Rise
The report estimates that global inflation will rise to 4% this year, up from 3.3% in 2025.
If the conflict continues and energy markets remain unstable, inflation could reach 4.4%, intensifying pressure on central banks and policymakers.
Higher energy and transportation costs are expected to feed into broader consumer prices, affecting both advanced and emerging economies.
Growth Forecast for 2026 Lowered to 2.5%
The World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.5%, down from 2.6% projected in January.
It described this as the lowest growth rate since the COVID-19 pandemic began in late 2019.
The report noted that global growth reached 2.9% in 2025, slightly higher than earlier estimates, but warned that momentum is weakening.
Two additional scenarios were outlined:
– Growth could slow to 2.1% if energy disruptions last longer than expected.
– Growth could fall to 1.3% if the energy shock spreads to financial markets, causing volatility and a drop in investor confidence.
Broader Economic Risks
The Hormuz closure is affecting more than oil prices. According to the World Bank, broader risks include:
– Increased shipping and insurance costs.
– Financial market instability.
– Slower investment and trade flows.
– Heightened vulnerability in energy-importing economies.
The Bank also said it had downgraded growth expectations for roughly two-thirds of countries due to the ongoing conflict.
Conclusion:
The Hormuz closure has triggered major disruption in global energy markets, prompting the World Bank to cut its 2026 growth forecast and warn of rising inflation. The trajectory of the global economy will depend heavily on the duration of energy supply disruptions and the stability of financial markets in the months ahead.
