The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on Tuesday that the likelihood of El Niño occurring between June and August reaches 80%, potentially intensifying extreme weather phenomena globally.
Exceptional warming in Pacific Ocean waters is creating conditions conducive to the phenomenon, which is expected to affect global temperature patterns and rainfall distribution.
The organization warns that the probability of the phenomenon persisting through November exceeds 90%, with expectations of moderate to strong intensity.
80% likelihood of El Niño in the coming three months
The World Meteorological Organization stated in its latest report that the probability of El Niño occurring between June and August 2026 reaches 80%.
The organization noted that exceptional warming of Pacific Ocean waters is creating favorable conditions for the phenomenon’s formation.
The phenomenon is expected to influence global temperature patterns and precipitation across the world.
Probability of continuation through November
The organization confirmed that the likelihood of El Niño persisting through November at minimum exceeds 90%.
The organization forecasts a phenomenon of moderate intensity at minimum, potentially reaching strong intensity.
Exceptional temperature rise in tropical Pacific
Between late April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific approached the thresholds that characterize El Niño.
This warming was driven by exceptionally high temperatures exceeding seasonal averages by more than 6 degrees Celsius.
Values of the Southern Oscillation Index, which represents the atmospheric component of El Niño, align with conditions favoring the phenomenon’s emergence.
Warnings of extreme weather phenomena
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, stated:
“We must prepare for a phase of El Niño that could be strong, exacerbating drought and heavy rainfall, and increasing the risk of heat waves both over land and in the oceans.”
The organization warned that even moderate-intensity El Niño increases the probability of various extreme weather and climate phenomena.
Expected impacts
Potential effects may include:
Severe heat waves
Drought in specific regions
Heavy rainfall and flooding in other areas
Disruptions to global climate patterns
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is characterized by rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months.
It represents a natural cycle in climate systems and affects:
Global temperatures
Rainfall patterns
Global atmospheric circulation
Lessons from previous El Niño events
El Niño episodes in 2023 and 2024 made those years the warmest on record.
These events demonstrated that the phenomenon’s impact extends for several months, influencing the global climate sequentially.
Conclusion:
The World Meteorological Organization warns of a high probability of El Niño occurrence in the coming months, with forecasts of moderate to strong intensity. Reports indicate the need to prepare for potential extreme weather impacts globally during the forthcoming period.
