A potential jet fuel market crisis is looming in the European Union if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue in the coming weeks, the European Commission warned on Thursday.
The Commission said that any closure of the strategic waterway would directly affect crude oil and refined petroleum supplies, with repercussions for all EU member states.
Separately, the International Energy Agency said escalating tensions in the Middle East are pushing countries to reassess their energy strategies amid growing security concerns.
European Commission warns of tighter jet fuel market
The Commission’s Directorate‑General for Energy, in an update following meetings of oil and gas coordination groups, said that current impacts remain limited to price levels.
However, it cautioned that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve in the coming weeks, markets could tighten significantly, particularly in the jet fuel segment.
So far, no actual supply disruptions to consumers have been recorded, according to the statement.
Strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route for global oil exports. Any disruption could affect:
Crude oil shipments
Refined petroleum products
Shipping and insurance costs
Global fuel prices
IEA signals broader energy security crisis
The International Energy Agency said that ongoing tensions in the Middle East represent the most serious energy security crisis in recent history.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that the current situation could reshape global investment strategies, similar to the structural changes that followed the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Global energy investment outlook for 2026
The IEA projected global energy investments to reach approximately 3.4 trillion dollars in 2026, slightly higher than the previous year.
Of this total:
Around 2.2 trillion dollars will be allocated to electricity networks, storage, low‑emission fuels, nuclear power, renewables, efficiency and electrification
About 1.2 trillion dollars is expected to go to oil, natural gas and coal
Oil investment is forecast to decline for the third consecutive year to below 500 billion dollars, despite elevated crude prices.
Shift toward gas and renewables
The agency expects natural gas investment to reach 330 billion dollars, the highest level in a decade.
Renewable energy investment is projected to total about 665 billion dollars this year, including 365 billion dollars for solar energy alone.
Nuclear investment is expected to exceed 80 billion dollars annually, while coal investment may reach 180 billion dollars, the highest level since 2012.
Electricity supply and infrastructure investments are forecast at around 1.6 trillion dollars in 2026, including 550 billion dollars for grid networks and more than 100 billion dollars for battery storage.
Conclusion:
The warning of a possible jet fuel market crisis underscores Europe’s vulnerability to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As geopolitical tensions persist, global energy strategies and investment patterns appear set for significant adjustment, with growing emphasis on diversification and domestic resources.
