Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States increased by 2.4 percent in 2025, ending a two-year period of decline, according to a report released Tuesday by the Rhodium Group. The research firm attributed the rise to two primary factors: a cold winter that increased demand for heating fuel and a surge in electricity generation needed to power the growing artificial intelligence sector.
The report notes that this increase occurred as the Trump administration implemented policies affecting climate initiatives. However, the authors state that the full consequences of these decisions will become more apparent in the coming years. This development coincides with a broader trend where several major economies are slowing their pace of emissions reduction, even as 2025 is expected to be confirmed as one of the hottest years on record.
According to the findings, emissions from buildings saw the largest increase at 6.8 percent, followed by the power sector with a 3.8 percent rise. “We tend to see building emissions bump around like this due to higher fuel use for heating,” explained Michael Gaffney, a Rhodium Group analyst and co-author of the report. “But in the power sector this is about growing significant demand from data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations and other large load customers.”
The situation was intensified by high natural gas prices, which led to a 13 percent increase in electricity generation from coal compared to 2024. Despite this, solar power generation expanded significantly, growing by 34 percent. This contributed to zero-emission sources reaching a record-high 42 percent share of the power grid.
In the transport sector, which is the largest source of emissions, levels remained nearly unchanged. The report credits this to improved vehicle fleet efficiency and increased consumer purchases of electric and hybrid vehicles before certain tax credits expired.
The United States remains the world’s second-largest emitter after China but holds the highest cumulative emissions since the industrial era began. While US emissions have generally declined since their peak in 2007, the report indicates the country is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement target of reducing emissions by 50–52 percent by 2035, relative to 2005 levels.
Report co-author Ben King noted that the continued growth in solar energy and electric vehicle sales still points to “sustained progress,” driven by economic factors. “Solar, wind, batteries, these are some of the cheapest things to bring onto the grid right now,” said King.
The Rhodium Group compiles its estimates using a mix of official government data and proprietary modeling. The firm noted that future forecasting may become more challenging if the current administration alters its data collection practices.
