US President Donald Trump this week urged the Palestinian militant group Hamas to seize the opportunity for a 60-day truce in Gaza, saying Israel had agreed to the proposal.
After almost 21 months of devastating fighting in the Palestinian territory and following a speedy resolution to Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, Trump’s exhortations have reignited hopes for a third ceasefire in the Gaza war.
But, with familiar obstacles to a truce still in place and an upcoming meeting between Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu critical to the outcome, the likelihood of a deal remains in the balance, analysts say.
– What’s holding up a Hamas response? –
Efforts to strike a deal in numerous rounds of indirect talks have repeatedly failed, with the primary point of contention centred on Hamas’s calls for an enduring ceasefire in Gaza.
In a Wednesday statement, Hamas said it was weighing its response to the new proposal and sought “an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression” as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the entry of aid into the territory.
Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there could be flexibility in Hamas’s position if they adopt a “pragmatic understanding that this is as good as they’ll get for the foreseeable future”.
He nonetheless noted that there were “still extremely sizable gaps” on Hamas’s demands, including the path to a permanent end to the war, the re-opening of Gaza to humanitarian aid and Israel’s withdrawal.
“Those will be ultimately the most critical matters in deciding whether that initial 60-day period is put on,” he added.
Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst at King’s College London, said Hamas’s “deep mistrust of Israel’s intentions — given past ceasefires that collapsed under renewed strikes — means Hamas would need firm guarantees before agreeing” to a deal.
In January, Hamas and Israel agreed to a truce which broke down in March, with the two sides unable to agree on the next steps and Israel resuming air and ground attacks.
– What are Israel’s demands? –
Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to “destroy” Hamas “down to their very foundation”, restating Israel’s war aim of eradicating the Palestinian group after its unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza.
Israel has consistently called for the dismantling of Hamas’s military structures and the return of remaining hostages in Gaza captured in 2023.
It has moreover sought a path to resuming the war during the two previous ceasefires.
Israel’s hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Wednesday to push the offensive in Gaza harder.
“Let’s finish the job in Gaza. We must bring down Hamas, occupy the Gaza Strip, encourage the transfer” of Palestinians out of the territory, Ben Gvir said in a televised interview.
Krieg however said there were “domestic factors” that could allow Netanyahu “to make concessions”, despite the far-right voices in his coalition urging the continuation of the war.
“He is seen as having ‘won’ the war against Iran, his popularity is on the rise again across Israel, there is growing pressure from the military leadership to find an off-ramp in Gaza,” Krieg said.
Lovatt said a key question was whether there had been a “shift in Netanyahu’s political calculations… which to date have seen the continuation of the war in Gaza and the maintenance of his far-right coalition as being most in his political interest”.
– How important is US pressure? –
Trump is due to host Netanyahu at the White House next Monday, with the US president vowing on Tuesday to be “very firm” in his stance on ending the war in Gaza.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said he hoped a Gaza ceasefire could be in place “sometime next week”.
Lovatt said it was “quite clear it is Trump and the Americans that have the key to this”.
Last week, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire mediated by the United States and Qatar, after Washington bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.
“We’ve seen when Trump puts his foot down… Trump is able to leverage his relationship with Netanyahu and his support for Israel when he wants,” Lovatt said.
Krieg said Washington has the “weight and security levers” to influence Israel either through aid, arms support or the withdrawal of its international diplomatic cover.
“Israel will do only what it sees as serving its core interests. Without sustained, carefully calibrated US pressure… a durable agreement remains unlikely,” Krieg added.
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© Agence France-Presse
