The White House has said President Donald Trump is discussing options including military action to take Greenland — despite a warning from Denmark that an attack would spell the end of NATO.<\/p>\n
But how high really is the risk that Trump’s desire for the territory might end up sinking an alliance that has underpinned Western security for over seven decades?<\/p>\n
The answer depends on whether Trump is really planning to make a move and if the spectre of military force is just a bluff to exert pressure.<\/p>\n
Here’s how the situation could break down:<\/p>\n
– US ups threats –<\/p>\n
In the wake of his military intervention in Venezuela, Trump set off alarm bells in Europe by repeating his insistence that he wants to take control of Greenland.<\/p>\n
The mineral-rich semi-autonomous territory — part of Washington’s long-standing NATO ally Denmark and home already to a US military base — has been in Trump’s sights since his first term in office.<\/p>\n
But this time around his administration has ramped up its rhetoric by insisting that “acquiring Greenland is a national security priority”.<\/p>\n
“The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilising the US military is always an option,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday.<\/p>\n
That came despite a warning from Danish premier Mette Frederiksen an attack on a NATO ally would end the alliance — and a show of support for Copenhagen from key European leaders.<\/p>\n
– Military route? –<\/p>\n
While Trump was willing to deploy US military might against long-standing foe Venezuela, using force against a close ally like Denmark is a different ball game.<\/p>\n
French President Emmanuel Macron said he couldn’t “imagine a scenario” under which Washington would violate Danish sovereignty.<\/p>\n
Any US military action against Greenland would effectively tear NATO apart.<\/p>\n
Its Article Five pledge that members will defend each other if attacked is meant to deter threats from outside — and the idea of its key power would turn on an ally was seen as inconceivable.<\/p>\n
Under an existing agreement with Denmark, the United States could already station more troops Greenland if it wants.<\/p>\n
Officials at NATO have repeatedly played down the prospect Trump could invade — but admit that with the US leader they can never be sure.<\/p>\n
“We don’t believe he would — there is no need — the US can get any access they want from Denmark,” a senior NATO diplomat told AFP, speaking as others on condition of anonymity.<\/p>\n
“But given the persistent rhetoric, we can’t be entirely sure.”<\/p>\n
So far there has been no sign of the sort of military buildup witnessed around Venezuela and some US officials have been pressing other options.<\/p>\n
US media reported Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers Trump wants to buy Greenland rather than attack it — and the hope from NATO is that diplomacy will win out.<\/p>\n
“I hope the Danes, the Greenlanders and the Americans will sit around a fire somewhere and an outcome will be reached,” a second NATO diplomat said.<\/p>\n
– NATO steers clear –<\/p>\n
So far NATO as an organisation has tried to stay out of the Greenland issue.<\/p>\n
“I don’t think this issue will ever be brought up in a NATO framework in order to avoid any divisions,” a third NATO diplomat said.<\/p>\n
With Russia’s war raging in Ukraine, European members are desperate not to jeopardise US involvement in helping to shield them from Moscow.<\/p>\n
Alliance chief Mark Rutte has tried to deflect US interest by emphasising joint efforts to bolster security in the Arctic against threats from Russia and China, a key justification by Trump for wanting Greenland.<\/p>\n
“The Danes are totally fine if the US would have a bigger presence than they have now,” Rutte told CNN. “We have to make sure that the Arctic stays safe.”<\/p>\n
While the alliance takes a backseat, some more bullish European members may try to be more assertive.<\/p>\n
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Paris was talking to Germany and Poland to come up with a plan for a possible response.<\/p>\n
There are fears though that just by raising the prospect of attacking an ally — or pressuring it to cede territory — the United States may have already damaged NATO.<\/p>\n
“No one has any interest in a quarrel within NATO, except our enemies,” said Belgian defence minister Theo Francken.<\/p>\n
“I’m convinced initiatives will be taken in the coming days, behind the scenes or in the open, to resolve this situation.”<\/p>\n
del\/raz\/jj<\/p>\n
\u00a9 Agence France-Presse<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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