Following Iraq’s parliamentary election this week, the complex and often lengthy task of choosing the country’s next leader is set to begin.<\/p>\n
Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani claimed victory for his coalition after preliminary results showed it was the largest bloc — though it still falls short of the majority needed to form a government.<\/p>\n
Sudani now faces the tough quest of securing support from other parties, mostly from the Shiite majority, in his bid for a second term.<\/p>\n
With no single bloc dominating the next parliament, key parties could spend weeks or even months negotiating alliances to build the largest bloc and nominate the next premier.<\/p>\n
Sudani was brought to power in 2022 by the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite factions with varying links to Iran.<\/p>\n
While preliminary vote counts for each list by province were released, seat allocations in parliament will not be announced until later.<\/p>\n
By convention in Iraq, a Shiite Muslim holds the post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.<\/p>\n
– How is the government formed? –<\/p>\n
Naming a premier and forming a government has often proven to be an arduous task involving protracted political wrangling.<\/p>\n
In previous parliaments, Shiite majority parties have struck compromises to work together and form a government, and the main contenders often find themselves sidelined.<\/p>\n
Seats are used as bargaining chips, and newly-elected lawmakers can switch sides.<\/p>\n
With an outright majority almost impossible to achieve by any single list — as was the case in this week’s vote — the next premier will be selected by whichever coalition can gather enough allies to become the biggest bloc.<\/p>\n
Since voting began two years after the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, only one premier, Nuri al-Maliki, has served for two terms (2006-2014).<\/p>\n
– What are the possible outcomes? –<\/p>\n
Currently, no serious candidates have emerged except for Sudani — though he himself was a relative unknown prior to his nomination.<\/p>\n
A senior politician told AFP last month that the Coordination Framework is divided over supporting Sudani, with Maliki seemingly poised to oppose a second term for the incumbent.<\/p>\n
Long-term powerbrokers, including from the Coordination Framework, worry that Sudani has amassed too much power during his first term, making some reluctant to allow him to keep his seat.<\/p>\n
Sudani has also faced allegations that members of his office were responsible for wiretapping the phones of politicians.<\/p>\n
A source within a main party in the Coordination Framework told AFP that the alliance had previously agreed to reunite and create the largest bloc.<\/p>\n
“They will name the next premier and participate in choosing the parliament speaker, his deputies and the president,” the source said.<\/p>\n
– What happened after previous votes? –<\/p>\n
In the 2010 election, former premier Iyad Allawi’s bloc won most seats, 91, closely followed by Maliki’s alliance, which won 89.<\/p>\n
After months of bickering, political leaders stuck a deal and Maliki was reappointed for another term despite coming second in the ballot.<\/p>\n
In 2021, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s bloc emerged as the biggest winner, with 73 seats, but still fell far short of a majority.<\/p>\n
His bloc withdrew from parliament following a dispute with other Shiite parties that culminated in deadly fighting in Baghdad.<\/p>\n
In the aftermath, influential parties instead came together under the Coordination Framework to form a larger bloc, and brought Sudani to power.<\/p>\n
– What role do Tehran and Washington play? –<\/p>\n
For decades, Iraq has been a proxy battleground between the US and Iran, and forming a government has always been influenced by the two foes.<\/p>\n
The next premier will have to maintain the delicate balance between their interests.<\/p>\n
Since the US-led invasion, Iran has not only wielded significant influence in Iraqi politics, but also backs armed groups in the country, whose power has grown both politically and financially.<\/p>\n
As Iran’s regional influence wanes, it aims to preserve its power in Iraq and keep the market open to products from its crippled economy.<\/p>\n
Washington meanwhile wants to cripple Tehran’s influence, pressuring Baghdad to disarm Iran-backed factions, many of which have been designated as terrorist groups.<\/p>\n
Some of those groups will nonetheless have seats in the parliament and maybe the government.<\/p>\n
Last week, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told the Saudi-funded Al-Hadath channel that six pro-Iran factions are on a US blacklist — a key factor the government must consider.<\/p>\n
rh\/jsa<\/p>\n
\u00a9 Agence France-Presse<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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